Short-term spatial and temporal forecast of dry snow avalanches of sublimation recrystallization and mixed origin

Abstract

A possibility of space-temporary short-term forecast-diagnosis of dry sublimative recrystallization and mixed (recrystallization plus fresh snow) avalanches is under consideration. The special discriminate analog–macrophysical models of the short-term background forecast is verified on correlation degree with probabilistic zoning of avalanche site № 22 in Khibiny. Аs a result we have correlation coefficients of order –(0.6÷0.7). The statistical significance of correlation coefficients (an order of 0.02–0.07) are checked and a conclusion on likelihood of assumed hypothesis is made. So by the current and predicted meteorological data such kind of forecast for such genetic avalanche types release in concrete sites becomes possible. The short-term forecast function transformation of the examined in the article avalanche types into long-term ones by averaging perennial realized forecast function values on slipping optimal 5-years intervals shows avalanche activity trend with probable 8–10 and 32-years harmonics during selected observation period. But in comparison with purely dry and wet fresh snow avalanches forecast analysed before the examined here above types are less precisely predicted. So it is needed an improvement of correspondent forecast functions on the base of theory contribution and future observations by increasing their series