.png)
.png)
.png)
Email this article 
Ледовитость арктических морей и ее связь с приземной температурой воздуха в Северном полушарии
Abstract
Проанализирована линейная связь среднемесячных аномалий площади морского льда в арктических морях и приземной температуры воздуха над сушей Северного полушария в марте и сентябре. Выявлена отрицательная корреляция с температурой в прилегающих к морям регионах суши, а также ряд удаленных связей, которые можно объяснить влиянием атмосферной циркуляции. Рассмотрены особенности сезонного хода площади покрытия морей льдом, климатические тренды, изменчивость и автокорреляция аномалий ледовитости. Наиболее сильное сокращение площади морских льдов в последние десятилетия наблюдаются в Баренцевом море в зимний период, в Карском, Лаптевых и Восточно-Сибирском морях в летний сезон.
About the Authors
Татьяна МатвееваRussian Federation
Владимир Семенов
Russian Federation
Елена Астафьева
Russian Federation
References
1. Alekseev G.V., Aleksandrov E.I., Glok N.I., Ivanov N.E., Smolyanitsky V.M., Kharlanenkova N.E., Yulin A.V. The evolution of the Arctic sea ice area in the context of current climate change. Issledovaniye Zemli iz kosmosa. Earth exploration from space. 2015, 2: 5-19. [In Russian]
2. Ivanov V.V., Alekseev V.A., Alekseeva T.A., Koldunov N.V., Repina I.A., Smirnov A.V. Arctic ice cover becomes seasonal? // Issledovaniye Zemli iz kosmosa. Earth exploration from space. 2013, №. 4: 50-50. [In Russian]
3. Zakharov V.F. Morskiye l'dy v klimaticheskoy sisteme. Sea ice in the climate system. St. Petersburg: Hydrometeoizdat, 1996. 213 p. [In Russian]
4. Serreze M.C., Barrett A.P., Slater A.G., Woodgate R A., Aagaard K., Lammers R. B., Steele M., Moritz R., Meredith M., Lee C.M. The large‐scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2006, 111: C11010.
5. Aagaard K., Carmack E.C. The role of sea ice and other fresh waters in the Arctic circulation. J. Geophys. Res. 1989, 94(C10): P.14485–14498.
6. Cavalieri D.J., Parkinson C.L. Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979-2010. The Cryosphere. 2012, 6: 881-889.
7. Stroeve J.C., Serreze M.C., Holland M.M., Kay J.E., Malanik J., Barrett A.P. The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis. Climatic Change. 2012, 110(3-4): 1005-1027.
8. Overland J.E., Wang M. When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? Geophysical Research Letters. 2013, 40(10): P. 2097-2101.
9. Frolov I.E., Gudkovich Z.M., Karklin V.P., Kovalev E.G., Smolyanitsky V.M. Climatic changes of ice conditions in the Arctic seas of the Eurasian shelf. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. Problems of Arctic and Antarctic. 2007, 75: 149–160. [In Russian]
10. Smedsrud L.H, Esau I., Ingvaldsen R.B., Eldevik T., Haugan P.M., Li C., Lien V.S., Olsen A., Omar A.M., Otterå O.H., Risebrobakken B., Sandø A.B., Semenov V.A., Sorokina S.A. The role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic climate system. Reviews of Geophysics. 2013, 51(3): 415-449.
11. Vihma T. Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: A review. Surveys in Geophysics. 2014, 35(5): 1175-1214.
12. Alexeev V.A., Walsh J. E., Ivanov V V., Semenov V.A., Smirnov A.V. Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice. Environmental Research Letters. 2017, 12(8): 084011.
13. Kinnard C., Zdanowicz C.M., Fisher D.A., Isaksson E., de Vernal A., Thompson L.G. Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. Nature. 2011, 479 (7374): 509-513.
14. Semenov V.A., Martin T., Behrens L.K., Latif M., Astafyeva E.S. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles. Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2017, 57(1): 77-107. [In Russian]
15. Alexeev V.A., Esau I., Polyakov I.V., Byam S.J., Sorokina S. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products. Climatic Change. 2012, 111(2): 215-239.
16. Bekryaev R.V., Polyakov I.V., Alexeev V.A. Role of polar amplification in long-term surface air temperature variations and modern Arctic warming. Journal of Climate. 2010, 23(14): 3888-3906.
17. Singh R.K., Maheshwari M., Oza S.R., Kumar R. Long-term variability in Arctic sea surface temperatures. Polar Science. 2013, 7(3-4): 233-240.
18. Alekseev G.V., Radionov V.F., Aleksandrov E.I., Ivanov N.E., Kharlanenkova N.E. Climate change in the Arctic and the northern polar region. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. Problems of Arctic and Antarctic. 2010, 1(84): 67–80. [In Russian]
19. Screen J.A., Simmonds I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature. 2010, 464: 1334–1337.
20. Semenov V.A., Latif M. The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice. The Cryosphere. 2012, 6(6): 1231-1237.
21. Bokuchava D.D., Semenov V.A.Analysis of surface air temperature anomalies in the Northern hemisphere in the 20th century using observational and reanalysis data Fundamentalnaya i prikladnaya klimatologiya. Fundamental and applied climatology. 2018, 1: 28-51. [In Russian]
22. Polyakov I.V, Alekseev G.V, Bekryaev R.V, Bhatt U.S, Colony R., Johnson M.A., Karklin V.P., Walsh D, Yulin A.V. Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas. Journal of Climate. 2003, 16(12): 2078-2085.
23. Semenov V.A. Influence of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea on climate variability in the Arctic region. Doklady Akademii Nauk. Doklady Earth Sciences. 2008, 418(1): 106–109. [In Russian]
24. Mokhov I. I., Smirnov D. A. Contribution of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Surface Air Temperature Trends. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2018, 43(9): 557–564.
25. Walsh J.E., Fetterer F., Scott Stewart J., Chapman W.L. A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to 1850. Geographical Review. 2017, 107(1): 89-107.
26. Walsh J. E., Johnson C. M. Interannual atmospheric variability and associated fluctuations in Arctic sea ice extent. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 1979, 84(C11): 6915-6928.
27. Walsh J.E., Chapman W.L. 20th-century sea-ice variations from observational data. Annals of Glaciology. 2001, 33: 444-448.
28. Rayner N.A., Parker D.E., Horton E.B., Folland C.K., Alexander L.V., Rowell D.P., Kent E.C., Kaplan A. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2003, 108(D14): 4407.
29. Meier W.N., Hovelsrud G.K. van Oort B.E.H., Key J.R., Kovacs K.M., Michel C., Haas C., Granskog M.A., Gerland S., Perovich D.K., Makshtas A., Reist J.D. Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity. Rev. Geophys. 2014, 52: 185–217.
30. Andersen S. Tonboe R., Kaleschke L., Heygster G., Pedersen L. T. Intercomparison of passive microwave sea ice concentration retrievals over the high concentration Arctic sea ice. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2007, 112: C08004.
31. Ivanova N., Johannessen O.M., Pedersen L.T., Tonboe R.T. Retrieval of Arctic sea ice parameters by satellite passive microwave sensors: A comparison of eleven sea ice concentration algorithms. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. 2014, 52(11): 7233-7246.
32. Alekseev G., Glok N., Smirnov A. On assessment of the relationship between changes of sea ice extent and climate in the Arctic. International Journal of Climatology. 2016, 36(9): 3407-3412.
33. Connolly R., Connolly M., Soon W. Re-calibration of Arctic sea ice extent datasets using Arctic surface air temperature records. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2017, 62(8): 1317-1340.
34. Outten S.D., Esau I. A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia. Climatic Change. 2012, 110(3-4): 1069-1075.
35. Titkova TB, Cherenkova Ye.A., Semenov V.A. Regional features of changes in winter extreme temperatures and precipitation in Russia in 1970–2015. Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2018, 58(4): 486-497. [In Russian]
36. Semenov V.A. Link Between Anomalously Cold Winters in Russia and Sea-Ice Decline in the Barents Sea. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2016, 52(3): 225-233.
37. Harris I., Jones P.D., Osborn T.J., Lister D.H. Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10 Dataset. International journal of climatology. 2014, 34(3): 623-642.
38. Lemke P., Trinkl E.W., Hasselmann K. Stochastic dynamic analysis of polar sea ice variability. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 1980, 10(12): 2100-2120.
39. Stroeve J.C., Markus T., Boisvert L., Miller J., Barrett A. Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss. Geophysical Research Letters. 2014, 41(4): 1216-1225.
40. Onarheim I.H., Eldevik T., Årthun M., Ingvaldsen R.B., Smedsrud L.H. Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters. 2015, 42(13): 5364-5371.
41. Hurrell J. W., Deser C. North Atlantic climate variability: the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Marine Systems. 2010. 79(3-4): 231-244.
42. Schlichtholz P. Influence of oceanic heat variability on sea ice anomalies in the Nordic Seas. Geophysical Research Letters. 2011, 38: L05705
43. Dickson R. R., Osborn T.J., Hurrell J.W., Meincke J., Blindheim J., Adlandsvik B., Vinje T., Alekseev G., Maslowski W. The Arctic ocean response to the North Atlantic oscillation. Journal of Climate. 2000, 13(15): 2671-2696.
44. Johannessen O.M., Bengtsson L., Miles M.W., Kuzmina S.I., Semenov V.A., Alekseev G.V., Nagurnyi A.P., Zakharov V.F., Bobylev L.P., Pettersson L.H., Hasselmann K., Cattle A.P. Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability. Tellus A. 2004, 56: 328–341.
45. Sorteberg A., Kvingedal B. Atmospheric forcing on the Barents Sea winter ice extent. Journal of Climate. 2006, 19(19): 4772-4784.
46. Semenov V. A., Mokhov I. I., Latif M. Influence of the ocean surface temperature and sea ice concentration on regional climate changes in Eurasia in recent decades. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2012, 48 (4): 355–372.
47. Caian M., Koenigk T., Döscher R., Devasthale A. An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dynamics. 2018, 50(1-2): 423-441.
48. Thompson D., Wallace J.M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical research letters. 1998, 25(9): 1297-1300.
49. Ustinova E.I., Sorokin Yu.D., Khen G.V. Inter-annual variability of the thermal conditions of the Sea of Okhotsk. Izvestiya TINRO. 2002, 130: 44-51. [In Russian]
50. Ohshima K. I., Nihashi S., Hashiya E., Watanabe T. Interannual variability of sea ice area in the Sea of Okhotsk: Importance of surface heat flux in fall. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 2006, 84: 907–919.
51. Pishchalnik V.M. Romanyuk V.A., Minervin I.G., Batukhtina A.S. Analysis of the dynamics of the ice cover anomalies of the Sea of Okhotsk in the period from 1882 to 2015. Izvestiya TINRO. 2016, 185: 228-239. [In Russian]
52. Paik S. Min S. K., Kim Y. H., Kim B. M., Shiogama H., Heo J. Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk. Journal of Climate. 2017, 30(12): 4693-4703.
53. Tachibana Y., Honda M., Takeuchi K. The abrupt decrease of the sea-ice over the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk in 1989 and its relation to the recent weakening of the Aleutian low. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 1996, 74: 579–584.
54. Linkin M.E., Nigam S. The North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific teleconnection pattern: Mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J. Climate. 2008, 21: 1979–1997.
55. Ogi M., Tachibana Y., Yamazaki K. The connectivity of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer Okhotsk high. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 2004, 82: 905–913
56. Zhang J., Woodgate R., Moritz R. Sea ice response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing in the Bering Sea. Journal of physical oceanography. 2010, 40(8): 1729-1747.
57. Dickson R.R., Meincke J., Malmberg S.-A., Lee A.J. The «Great Salinity Anomaly» in the northern North Atlantic, 1968-1982. Progress in Oceanography. 1988, 20(2): 103-151.
58. Belkin I. M., Levitus S., Antonov J., Malmberg S. A. «Great salinity anomalies» in the North Atlantic. Progress in Oceanography. 1998, 41(1): 1-68.
59. Kwok R., Rothrock D.A. Variability of Fram Strait ice flux and North Atlantic oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 1999, 104(C3): 5177-5189.
Supplementary files
For citation: ., ., . . Ice and Snow. 2020;60(1).
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
ISSN 2076-6734 (Print)
ISSN 2412-3765 (Online)