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Моделирование снегонакопления и снеготаяния в бассейне р. Камы с применением данных глобальных моделей прогноза погоды
Abstract
На примере холодного периода 2017-2018 гг. проведено моделирование формирования и таяния снежного покрова в бассейне р. Камы с применением выходных данных глобальных моделей прогноза погоды GFS (США), GEM (Канада) и ПЛ-АВ (Россия). Валидация результатов выполнена по данным 40 полевых и 27 лесных снегомерных маршрутов, а в весенний период – также по спутниковым снимкам MODIS. Показано, что расчет снегозапасов с приемлемой точностью возможен на основе выходной продукции всех трех моделей. По данным модели ПЛ-АВ среднеквадратичная ошибка расчета снегозапасов оказалась минимальной, однако отмечается занижение снегозапаса в горной части бассейна. В свою очередь, по данным модели GEM снегозапасы систематически завышаются на 10-25%.
About the Authors
Сергей ПьянковПермский государственный национальный исследовательский университет
Russian Federation
Андрей Шихов
Russian Federation
Полина Михайлюкова
Russian Federation
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For citation: ., ., . . Ice and Snow. 2019;59(4).
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ISSN 2076-6734 (Print)
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