Regional features of changes in winter extreme temperatures and precipitation in Russia in 1970–2015


https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2018-4-486-497

Full Text:




Abstract

Te space-time dynamics of the occurrence of winter extreme events is investigated on the territory of Russia in 1970-2015 on the basis of daily observations at weather stations. It was found that a whole on the territory a noticeable increase in the occurrence of days with extremely high daily temperatures and daily precipitation and a decrease in the occurrence of extremely cold days was noted. Te most noticeable changes happened in the European part of Russia, where at the beginning of the XXI century occurrence of the extremes was greater than during the previous thirty years. Note also that at the beginning of XXI century in Southern Siberia increase of occurrences of both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature was concurrent. Tis combination appears to be caused by the increase in temperature variability in the region due to the alternation of winters with extreme frosts and warmer and wet winters. Te increase in the frequency of extremely high temperatures in the European part of Russia could have been caused by both general warming and the increased influence of AMO. An increase in the frequency of extreme high and low temperatures in the south of Siberia may be due to the formation of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly with a center near the coast of the Kara Sea, which is responsible for advection of cold air masses from the northeast. As well as cyclonic formation in southern Siberia, along the eastern periphery of which temperate latitudes can receive anomalously warm air from the subtropics.


About the Authors

T. B. Titkova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russian Federation


E. A. Cherenkova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russian Federation


V. A. Semenov
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; A. M. Obukhov Institute of Amtospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russian Federation


References

1. Semenov V.A., Latif M., Park W., Jungclaus J.H. Is the observed NAO variability during the instrumental record unusual? Geophys Research Letters. 2008, 35 (11): L11701. doi: 10.1029/2008GL033273.

2. Demchenko P.F., Semenov V.A. Estimation of uncertainty in surface air temperature climatic trends related to the internal dynamics of the atmosphere. Doklady Akademii Nauk. Reports of the Academy of Sciences. 2017, 476 (3): 339–342. doi: 10.7868/S0869565217270202. [In Russian].

3. Overland J., Dethloff K., Francis J., Hall R., Hanna E., Kim S.J., Screen J., Shepherd T.G., Vihma T. Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic. Nature Climate Change. 2016, 6: 992–999. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3121.

4. Katz R., Brown B.G. Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Journ. of Climate Change. 1992, 21: 289–302.

5. Vtoroy otsenochnyi doklad Rosgidrometa ob izmeneniyakh klimata i ikh posledstviyakh na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Glava 1.2.3. ; 1.3.2. The second estimated report of Roshydromet on climate changes and their consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation. Ch. 1.2.3. ; 1.3.2. Moscow: Roshydromet, 2014: 1009 p. [In Russian].

6. Cohen J., Screen J.A., Furtado J.C., Barlow M., Whittleston D., Coumou D., Francis J., Dethloff K., Entekhabi D., Overland J., Jones J. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme midlatitude weather. Nature Geoscience. 2014, 7: 627–637. doi: 10.1038/NGEO2234.

7. Semenov V.A. The connection of anomalously cold winter regimes on the territory of Russia with a decrease in the area of sea ice in the Barents Sea. Izvestiya RAN. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. Proc. of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean. 2016, 52 (3): 257–266. doi: 10.7868/S000235151603010X. [In Russian].

8. Platova T. V. Annual extremes of air temperature in the territory of the Russian Federation and their climate changes Meteorologiya i Gydrologiya. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2008, 11: 80–85. [In Russian].

9. Bardin M.Yu, Platova T.V. Changes in thresholds of extreme temperatures and precipitation on territory of Russia with global warming. Problemy ekologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya ekosistem. Problems of ecological monitoring and modeling of ecosystems. 2013, 25: 71–93. [In Russian].

10. Titkova T.B. Change in the nature of the temperature regime in the European part of Russia. Sevastopol: Institut prirodno-tekhnicheskikh system. Sb. trudov. Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-tekhnicheskoy konferentsii «Sistemy kontrolya okruzhayushchey sredy – 2017». Intern. Scientific and Technical Conf. «Environmental Monitoring Systems – 2017». 2017, 1: Р. 124. [In Russian].

11. Popova V.V., Shmakin A.B. Circulation mechanisms of large-scale anomalies of winter air temperature in Northern Eurasia at the end of the 20th century Meteorology and hydrology. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2006, 12: 15–24. [In Russian].

12. Kryzhov V.N. Relationship between annual mean air temperature in northwestern Eurasia and the arctic oscillation. Meteorology and hydrology. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2004, 1: 5–14. [In Russian].

13. Ivanov V.V., Alekseyev V.A., Alekseyeva T.A., Koldunov N.V., Repina I.A., Smirnov A.V. Does Arctic Ocean Ice Cover Become Seasonal? Issledovaniye Zemli iz Kosmosa. Exploring the Earth from Space. 2013, 4: 50–65. doi: 10.7868/S0205961413040076. [In Russian].

14. Semenov V.A., Martin T., Behrens L.K., Latif M., Astafieva E.S. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles. Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2017, 57 (1): 77–107. doi: 10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107. [In Russian].

15. Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A., Khon V.C., Pogarsky F.A. Change of sea ice content in the Arctic and the associated climatic effects: detection and simulation. Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2013, 2 (122): 53–62. doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2013-2-53-62. [In Russian].

16. Semenov V.A., Latif M., Dommenget D., Keenlyside N.S., Strehz A., Martin T., Park W. The impact of north atlantic-arctic multidecadal variability on northern hemisphere surface air temperature. Journ. of Climate. 2010, 23 (21): 5668–5677.

17. Cherenkova E.A., Semenov V.A. A link between winter precipitation in Europe and the arctic sea ice, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation. Meteorologiya i hydrologiya. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2017, 4: 38–52. [In Russian].

18. Cherenkova E.A. Seasonal precipitation in the East European Plain during the periods of warm and cool anomalies of the North Atlantic surface temperature. Izvestiya RAN. Seriya geograficheskaya. Proc. of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Geographic series. 2017, 5: 72–81. doi: 10.7868/S0373244417050061. [In Russian].

19. Knight J.R., Folland C.K., Scaife A.A. Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys. Research Letters. 2006, 33: 17706.

20. Kiktev D.B., Caesar J., Alexander L Temperature and precipitation extremes in the second half of the twentieth century from numerical modeling results and observational data. Izvestiya RAN. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. Proc. of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics Atmospheric and Oceanic. 2009, 45 (3): 305–315. [In Russian].

21. Zolina O.G., Bulygina O.N. Current climatic variability of extreme precipitation in Russia. Fundamentalnaya i prikladnaya klimatologiya. Fundamental and applied climatology. 2016, 1: 84–103. [In Russian].

22. Zolotokrylin A., Cherenkova E. Seasonal changes in precipitation extremes in Russia for the last several decades and their impact on vital activities of the human population. Geography, environment, sustainability. 2017, 10 (4): 69–82. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-4-69-82.

23. Screen J.A. Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high latitudes. Nature Climate Change. 2014, 4: 577–582. doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2268.

24. Alekseev G.V., Kuzmina S.I., Glok N.I., Vyazilova A.Ye., Ivanov N.E., Smirnov A.V. Influence of Atlantic on the warming and reduction of sea ice in the Arctic. Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2017, 57 (3): 381–390. doi: 10.15356/2076-6734-2017-3-381-390. [In Russian].

25. Semenov V.A., Mokhov I.I., Latif M Influence of the ocean surface temperature and sea ice concentration on regional climate changes in Eurasia in recent decades. Izvestiya RAN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana. Physics Atmospheric and Oceanic. 2012, 48 (4): 403–421. [In Russian].

26. Kovalenko O.Yu., Bardin M.Yu., Voskresenskaya E.N. Changes in characteristics of air temperature extremes over the Black Sea region and their variability associated with interannual large-scale climatic processes. Fundamentalnaya i prikladnaya klimatologiya. Fundamental and applied climatology. 2017, 2: 42–62. [In Russian].

27. Shukurov K.A., Semenov V.A. Changes of characteristics of Moscow winter surface air temperature anomalies in 1970–2016 in a context of the Barents Sea ice reduction. Izvestiya RAN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana. Physics Atmospheric and Oceanic. 2018, 54 (1): 13–27. doi: 10.7868/S0003351518010026. [In Russian].

28. Vihma T. Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: a review. Surveys in Geophysics. 2014, 35: 1175–214.

29. Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A. Weather and climate anomalies in Russian regions related to global climate change. Meteorologiya i hydrologiya. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016, 2: 16–28. [In Russian].

30. Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A., Khon V.Ch., Latif M., Rekner E. The relationship between climate anomalies of Eurasia and the North Atlantic with natural variations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation over long-period model calculations. Doklady Akademii nauk. Reports of the Academy of Sciences. 2008, 419 (5): 687–690. [In Russian].

31. Semenov V.A., Shelekhova E.A., Mokhov I.I., Zuyev V.V., Koltermann P The role of the Atlantic long-period oscillation in the formation of seasonal air temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere according to model calculations. Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. Optics of the Atmosphere and the Ocean. 2014, 27 (3): 215–223. [In Russian].


Supplementary files

For citation: Titkova T.B., Cherenkova E.A., Semenov V.A. Regional features of changes in winter extreme temperatures and precipitation in Russia in 1970–2015 Ice and Snow. 2018;58(4):486-497. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2018-4-486-497

Views: 1153

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2076-6734 (Print)
ISSN 2412-3765 (Online)