Изменения площади арктических морских льдов в ансамблях климатических моделей CMIP3 и CMIP5


https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107

Полный текст:


Аннотация

Сокращение площади арктических морских льдов в течение последних десятилетий служит, пожалуй, самым ярким проявлением изменений климата. Хотя глобальные модели климата в целом воспроизводят уменьшение площади морских льдов в Арктике во второй половине XX в. и предсказывают сокращение этой площади в XXI  в. при заданных сценариях антропогенного воздействия, результаты моделей характеризуются значительным разбросом и систематическими ошибками. В работе сравниваются результаты моделирования площади морских льдов в Арктике двумя последними поколениями глобальных климатических моделей CMIP3 и CMIP5 в XX и XXI вв. Рассматриваются различные характеристики площади льдов в марте и сентябре для всей Арктики, Центральной Арктики и Баренцева моря. Также анализируются чувствительность площади морских льдов к изменению приземной температуры в Северном полушарии и связь вариаций этой площади с некоторыми модами атмосферной циркуляции.

Об авторах

В. А. Семенов
Институт физики атмосферы им. А.М. Обухова РАН; Институт географии РАН
Россия
Москва


Т. Мартин
Центр океанических исследований Гельмгольца ГЕОМАР
Германия
Киль


Л. К. Беренс
Бременский университет
Германия
Бремен


М. Латиф
Центр океанических исследований Гельмгольца ГЕОМАР; Кильский университет
Германия
Киль


Е. С. Астафьева
Институт географии РАН
Россия
Москва


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Дополнительные файлы

Для цитирования: Семенов В.А., Мартин Т., Беренс Л.К., Латиф М., Астафьева Е.С. Изменения площади арктических морских льдов в ансамблях климатических моделей CMIP3 и CMIP5. Лёд и Снег. 2017;57(1):77-107. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107

For citation: Semenov V.A., Martin T., Behrens L.K., Latif M., Astafieva E.S. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles. Ice and Snow. 2017;57(1):77-107. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107

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