РЕКОНСТРУКЦИЯ И ПРОГНОЗ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩИХ ВОДНОГО БАЛАНСА В БАССЕЙНЕ РЕКИ НАРЫН (КИРГИЗИЯ) ПО ДЕНДРОХРОНОЛОГИЧЕСКИМ ДАННЫМ


https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2012-3-87-98

Аннотация

Новый метод реконструкции годового объёма стока V включает в себя: 1) поиск информативных пунктов метеонаблюдений для получения достаточно тесной зависимости V = f(НК); индекс климата НК содержит нормированные аномалии годовых осадков и температуры воздуха, а также упругости водяного пара и баллов общей облачности за июнь–сентябрь; 2) отбор репрезентативных хронологий ширины древесных колец W для зависимости НК = f(W); 3) получение уравнения множественной линейной регрессии V = f(W); 4) ввод новых переменных (индексы PDSI/SPEI) в уравнение V = f(W). Рассчитан сток р. Нарын за 1700–2005 гг. по данным о W и с учётом временнóй изменчивости параметров уравнений множественной регрессии. Для 16 метеостанций Памира и Тянь-Шаня реконструированы многолетние ряды средней летней температуры воздуха Ts. Продолжительность рядов Ts составила от 100 до 278 лет. Получены положительные результаты прогноза: общего и ледниковой составляющей стока р. Нарын, а также многолетнего ряда максимальной плотности древесных колец.


Об авторах

В. Г. Коновалов
Институт географии РАН, Москва
Россия


О. Е. Максимова
Институт географии РАН, Москва
Россия


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Дополнительные файлы

Для цитирования: Коновалов В.Г., Максимова О.Е. РЕКОНСТРУКЦИЯ И ПРОГНОЗ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩИХ ВОДНОГО БАЛАНСА В БАССЕЙНЕ РЕКИ НАРЫН (КИРГИЗИЯ) ПО ДЕНДРОХРОНОЛОГИЧЕСКИМ ДАННЫМ. Лёд и Снег. 2012;52(3):87-98. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2012-3-87-98

For citation: Konovalov V.G., Maksimova O.E. RECONSTRUCTION AND PREDICTION OF WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS FROM DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL DATA FOR THE NARYN RIVER BASIN (KYRGYZSTAN). Ice and Snow. 2012;52(3):87-98. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2012-3-87-98

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