Kamchatka Snow Сover During Spring Season and its Projected Change in the First Half of the XXIth Century

Abstract

Kamchatka is one of the snowiest regions in the world.This study examines the spatio-temporal patterns in snow cover characteristics (maximum snow depth and snow water equivalent) across Kamchatsky Krai during historical period and under future climate. We used data from weather stations, the GlobSnow v.3.0 product, and results from global climate modeling within the CMIP6 project. Station observations that the region’s maximum snow depth has been generally stable, with a decreasing trend at stations in the southern part of the peninsula and an increasing trend at some stations in the central part. GlobSnow data also show stability in spring snow storage over most of the territory, except for a significant decrease on the south-western coast of the peninsula and in the northern, inland areas of the region. The CMIP6 climate models reproduce the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent relatively well,with local maxima in mountainous regions. Scenario projections of snow water equivalent trends through 2050 were produced using an ensemble of five climate models for four main IPCC scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). Maximum snow water equivalent (April) decreases by –6.2 ± 18 mm compared to the reference period (1981–2010), with the main decrease, from –60 to –90 mm, or 20 to 30%, confined at the southeastern coast of Kamchatka. In May, snow water equivalent decreases by an average of –28.2 ± 19 mm; the largest reductions, 75– 100 mm, or 23–42%) again occur in the southeast of the peninsula, while it remains stable in the central regions. Changes in snow cover characteristics may have a range of hydrological and economic consequences, so adaptation measures are requered.