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Effect of Heat Content and Heat Advection in the Greenland Sea on the Degradation of Old Ice
https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526020089
Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of upper-ocean heat content (0–300 m) and heat advection on the decline of old fast ice extent in the Greenland Sea, a key region for Arctic-Atlantic water mass interaction. Based on a comprehensive analysis of observational data and the ERA5, ORAS5, and CMEMS Global Ocean Ensemble Physics reanalyses for the period 1996–2023, a strong link is established between the thermal state of the Nordic Seas and the reduction of old fast ice. The results identify the warming of Atlantic Water as the primary driver of ice degradation, with heat advection through the Fram Strait playing a critical role. Two dominant mechanisms are identified: a direct thermal influence from Atlantic Water with short time lags (1–6 months), realized through basal ice melt, and an indirect process involving water mass transformation in the Norwegian Sea, whose effects manifest over longer time scales (12–48 months). The application of PLSR regression revealed pronounced seasonal variability in these processes. This regime shift is characterized by weakened ocean stratification, an increased mixed layer depth, and intensified vertical heat exchange, which together amplify the degradation of old ice. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of heat content and integral heat fluxes to the degradation of old fast ice in the Greenland Sea, which is crucial for improving predictive models of ice cover extent under the changing Arctic climate.
Keywords
About the Authors
N. А. LisRussian Federation
St. Petersburg
E. А. Cherniavskaia
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
N. V. Lebedev
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
E. S. Egorova
Russian Federation
Moscow
A. A. Sokolov
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
L. A. Timokhov
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
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Supplementary files
For citation: Lis N.А., Cherniavskaia E.А., Lebedev N.V., Egorova E.S., Sokolov A.A., Timokhov L.A. Effect of Heat Content and Heat Advection in the Greenland Sea on the Degradation of Old Ice. Ice and Snow. 2026;66(2):335–347. https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526020089
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