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Динамика озёр у ледника Малый Азау на Эльбрусе за последние 20 лет и их прорыв в 2025 году
https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526020061
Abstract
Рассматриваются механизмы и причины прорыва озера Азау 6 августа 2025 г. На основе данных дистанционного зондирования и батиметрических съёмок определены основные изменения ледника Малый Азау и озёр, формирующихся в его моренном комплексе. Площадь ледника Малый Азау за 2000–2025 гг. сократилась на 14% (с 9.1 ± 0.4 км2 в 2000 г. до 7.9 ± 0.1 км² в 2025 г.), причём за последнюю пентаду 2020–2025 гг. уменьшение площади составило 7.2% – столько же, сколько за предыдущие 20 лет. Деградация ледника привела к росту числа приледниковых озёр на освободившейся территории, изменению их площади и количества, а также к значимым прорывным событиям 2011 и 2025 гг. В результате прорыва озера Азау в 2025 г. его объём и площадь уменьшились более чем в 2 раза, при этом «нижнее» озеро полностью опорожнилось. Суммарный объём прорывного паводка составил 17 ± 2 тыс. м3, при этом текущий объём озера Азау равен 16.5 тыс. м³. В настоящее время объём озера составляет всего 25% относительно значений 2005–2011 гг. Основным триггером прорыва озера в 2025 г. выступила интенсивная абляция ледника, вызванная повышенной температурой воздуха, что обусловило рост притока воды в озеро и стока из него, переувлажнение моренной перемычки, вероятно, усугубившееся таянием мёртвого льда внутри неё, и её размыв на участке современного канала стока из озера. Озёра у ледника Малый Азау, появившиеся в XX веке, прошли минимум три полных цикла между прорывами 1978, 2011 и 2025 гг. Ключевой тенденцией является сокращение интервалов между этими событиями на фоне активизации таяния ледника. Несмотря на это, отмечено снижение объёмов прорывных паводков. По результатам работы показана необходимость дальнейшего мониторинга приледникового комплекса для предупреждения будущих прорывных событий и оценки возможности формирования новых озёр.
About the Authors
E. D. PavlyukevichRussian Federation
Moscow
I. N. Krylenko
Russian Federation
Moscow
V. M. Kidyaeva
Russian Federation
Moscow
A. S. Gubanov
Russian Federation
Moscow
V. A. Yudina
Russian Federation
Moscow
I. V. Krylenko
Russian Federation
Moscow
E. D. Drozdov
Russian Federation
Moscow
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Supplementary files
For citation: Pavlyukevich E.D., Krylenko I.N., Kidyaeva V.M., Gubanov A.S., Yudina V.A., Krylenko I.V., Drozdov E.D. . Ice and Snow. 2026;66(2):298-318. https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526020061
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