Changes in Sea Ice Concentration in the Vilkitsky Strait, as Observed from Satellite Microwave Radiometry Data Between 1979 and 2024

V. Shalina; A. V. Frolova

doi:10.7868/S2412376526010092

Changes in Sea Ice Concentration in the Vilkitsky Strait, as Observed from Satellite Microwave Radiometry Data Between 1979 and 2024

V. Shalina, A. V. Frolova

https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526010092

Full Text:

Abstract

Climate change in the Arctic has various effects, including rising temperatures and reduced sea ice cover. This paper analyses the change in sea ice concentration in the Vilkitsky Strait using data from microwave satellite measurements over the last 46 years. The efficiency of four methods for estimating sea ice concentration during a limited time interval that includes the processes of sea ice melting and sea ice cover formation is compared. When assessing the reliability of satellite data, the AARI maps were used as basic characteristics of the sea ice concentration. The Bootstrap algorithm has been shown to be the optimal choice. The NASA Team 2 algorithm produced the closest results with regard to the efficiency of sea ice concentration retrieval, so the results of its use are also provided. The mean values of sea ice concentration, their spread and trends are calculated and analysed for the time interval 1979-2024. It has been shown that significant changes to the sea ice in the strait occurred during the warm half of the year. During the cold months (December to April), the sea ice concentration remained almost unchanged, at an average of 98% concentration with minimal variation. A slight decrease in sea ice concentration of around 1.1% per decade was recorded in May and November. In the months following May, the trend of decreasing sea ice concentration intensified. The maximum reduction rate, amounting to 22% over a decade, was recorded in September; and it was 18% in August. These reductions are accompanied by significant variability of sea ice concentration. We also compare the sea ice concentration in two parts of the Strait — the Kara Sea side and the Laptev Sea side. From May to August, sea ice in the Kara Sea side was more often delayed in the Strait. In September and October, the situation was opposite.

Keywords

warming Arctic, Vilkitsky Strait, sea ice concentration, satellite data, Bootstrap algorithm, NASA Team2 algorithm,

About the Authors

V. Shalina

Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NIERSC)
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg

A. V. Frolova

Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NIERSC)
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg

References

1. Alekseeva T.A., Sokolova Yu.V., Tikhonov V.V., Smolyanitsky V.M., Afanasyeva E.V., Raev M.D., Sharkov E.A. Analysis of Sea Ice Areas in the Arctic Ocean Undetectable by the ASI 2 Algorithm Using Satellite Microwave Radiometry. Issledovanie Zemli iz kosmosa. Earth Research 3 from Space. 2021, 6: 22. https://doi.org/10.31857/S0205961421060026 [In Russian].

2. Doklad ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii za 2024 god. Report on Climate Features in the Russian Federation for 2024. Moscow: Roshydromet, 2025: 135 p. [In Russian].

3. Egorov A.G. Changes in the Age Composition and Thickness of Winter Ice Cover in the Arctic Seas of Russia in the Early 21st Century. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. Problems of the Arctic and Antarctic. 2020, 66 (2): 124–143. https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2020-66-2-124-143 [In Russian].

4. Kucheiko A.A., Ivanov A.Yu., Davydov A.A., Antonyuk A.Yu. Drift and Distribution of Icebergs in the Boris Vilkitsky Strait According to Detailed Radar and Optical Satellite Imagery. Issledovanie Zemli iz kosmosa. Earth Research from Space. 2015, (5): 73–83. https://doi.org/10.7868/S0205961415040065 [In Russian].

5. Latonin M.M., Bashmachnikov I.L., Bobylev L.P. The Phenomenon of Arctic Amplification and Its Driving Mechanisms. Fundamentalnaya i prikladnaya gidrofizika. Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics. 2021, 13 (3): 3–19. https://doi.org/10.7868/S2073667320030016 [In Russian].

6. Lotsiya Karskogo morya. Chast 1. Kara Sea Sailing Directions. Part 1. Leningrad, 1938: 546 p. [In Russian].

7. Plan razvitiya Severnogo morskogo puti na period do 2035 goda. The Northern Sea Route Development Plan for the Period up to 2035. Moscow, 2022: 57 р. [In Russian].

8. Tretyakov V.Yu., Frolov S.V., Sarafanov M.I. Variability of Ice Navigation Conditions Along the Northern Sea Route in 1997–2018. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. Problems of the Arctic and Antarctic. 2019, 65 (3): 328–340. https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2019-65-3-328-340 [In Russian].

9. Tikhonov V.V., Repina I.A., Raev M.D., Sharkov E.A., Boyarskii D.A., Komarova N.Yu. An Integrative Algorithm for Ice Conditions Determination in Polar Regions from Satellite Microwave Radiometry (VASIA2). Issled. Zemli iz kosmosa. Research. Earth from space. 2015, 51(9): 914–928. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815090194

10. Shalina E.V. Regional Features of Ice Conditions Changes in the Russian Arctic Seas and Along the Northern Sea Route According to Satellite Observations. Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa. Modern Problems of Remote Sensing of the Earth from Space. 2021, 18 (5): 201–213. https://doi.org/10.21046/2070-7401-2021-18-5-201-213 [In Russian].

11. Shukurov K.A. Statistical Characteristics of Sea Ice Concentration Variations in the Northern Sea Route Straits in Recent Decades. Optika atmosfery i okeana. Fizika atmosfery: XXVIII Mezhdunarodnyy simpozium. Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics. Atmospheric Physics: XXVIII International Symposium. Tomsk, 2022: 141–144 [In Russian].

12. seaice.uni-bremen: official site. Retrieved from: URL: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data-browser (Last access: May 10, 2025).

13. nsidc.org1: official site. Retrieved from: URL: https://nsidc.org/data/au_si12/versions/1 (Last access: May 10, 2025).

14. nsidc.org2: official site. Retrieved from: URL: https://n5eil01u.ecs.nsidc.org/PM/NSIDC-0051.002/ (Last access: May 10, 2025).

15. nsidc.org3: official site. Retrieved from: URL: https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0079/versions/4 (Last access: May 10, 2025).

16. AARI: official site. Retrieved from: URL: https://data.aari.ru//odata/_d0015.php (Last access: May 10, 2025).

17. rscf.ru: official site. Retrieved from: URL: https://rscf.ru/project/25-27-00308 (Last access: May 10, 2025).

18. Alekseeva T., Tikhonov V., Frolov S., Repina I., Raev M., Sokolova J., Sharkov E., Afanasieva E., Serovetnikov S. Comparison of Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations from the NASA Team, ASI, and VASIA2 Algorithms with Summer and Winter Ship Observations. Remote Sens. 2019, 11 (21): 2481. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11212481

19. Cavalieri D.J., Parkinson C.L., Gloersen P., Comiso J.C., Zwally H.J. Deriving Long-Term Time Series of Sea Ice Cover from Satellite Passive-Microwave Multisensor Data Sets. Journal of Geophysical Research. 1999, 104: 15803–15814. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC900081

20. Chen X., Zhao J., Zhao Y., Liu X., Ma L., Liu M., Shao Z., Xiao J., Chen Z, Zhang S., Zhao D., Mu F. Risk Assessment of Ice-Class-Based Navigation in Arctic: A Case Study in the Vilkitsky Strait. J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 2024, 2718: 012040. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2718/1/012040

21. Comiso J.C., Meier W.N., Gersten R. Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 2017, 122 (8): 6883–6900. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012768

22. Comiso J.C. Characteristics of Arctic Winter Sea Ice from Satellite Multispectral Microwave Observations. J. Geophys. Res. 1986, 91: 975–994

23. Kern S., Lavergne T., Pedersen L.T, Tonboe R.T., Bell L., Meyer M., Zeigermann L. Satellite Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Data Set Intercomparison Using Landsat Data. The Cryosphere 2022, 16 (1): 349–378. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-349-2022

24. Kern S., Lavergne T., Notz D., Pedersen L.T., Tonboe R. Satellite Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Data Set Inter-Comparison for Arctic Summer Conditions. The Cryosphere 2020, 14: 2469–2493. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2469-2020

25. Kern S., Lavergne T., Notz D., Pedersen L., Tonboe R., Saldo R., Sørensen A. Satellite Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Data Set Intercomparison: Closed Ice and Ship-Based Observations. The Cryosphere 2019, 13: 3261–3307. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3261-2019

26. Kwok R. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness, Volume, and Multiyear Ice Coverage: Losses and Coupled Variability (1958– 2018). Environ. Res. Lett. 2018, 13: 105005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae3ec

27. Lavergne T., Sørensen A.M., Kern S., Tonboe R., Notz D., Aaboe S., Bell L., Dybkjær G., Eastwood S., Gabarro C., Heygster G., Killie M.A., Kreiner M.B., Lavelle J., Saldo R., Sandven S., Pedersen L.T. Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI Sea-Ice Concentration Climate Data Records. The Cryosphere 2019, 13: 49–78. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-49-2019

28. Liu M., Zhao J., Zhao J., Gnatiuk N., Shalina E., Chen X., Shao Z., Xiao J., Chen Z., Zhang S., Zhao D., Mu F. The Influence of Landfast Ice on the Navigation in the Arctic Northeast Passage. J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 2024, 2718: 012011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2718/1/012011

29. Markus T., Cavalieri D.J. The AMSR-E NT2 sea ice concentration algorithm: its basis and implementation. J. Remote Sens. Soc. Jpn. 2009, 29: 216–225

30. Morice C.P., Kennedy J.J., Rayner N.A., Winn J.P., Hogan E., Killick R.E., Dunn R.J.H., Osborn T.J., Jones P.D., Simpson I.R. An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 Data Set. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2021, 126: e2019JD032361. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361

31. Serreze M., Barry R. Processes and Impacts of Arctic Amplification: A Research Synthesis. Glob. Planet. Change 2011, 77 (1–2): 85–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004

32. Serreze M., Meier W. The Arctic’s Sea Ice Cover: Trends, Variability, Predictability, and Comparisons to the Antarctic. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 2019, 1436 (1): 36–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13856

33. Shukurov K.A., Semenov V.A. Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favoring Sea Ice Concentration Extremes in the Northern Sea Route Straits in June– November of 1979–2017. Proc. 27th Int. Symp. Atmos. Ocean Opt. 2021, 11916: 1030–1035. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2601742

34. Simmonds I., Li M. Trends and Variability in Polar Sea Ice, Global Atmospheric Circulations, and Baroclinicity. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 2021, 1504 (1): 167–186. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14592

35. Spreen G., Kaleschke L., Heygster G. Sea Ice Remote Sensing Using AMSR-E 89-GHz Channels. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 2008, 113: C02S07. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003384

36. Tschudi M.A., Meier W.N., Stewart J.S. An Enhancement to Sea Ice Motion and Age Products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The Cryosphere 2020, 14: 1519–1536. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020

37. Wang Q., Lu P., Zu Y., Li Z., Leppäranta M., Zhang G. Comparison of Passive Microwave Data with Shipborne Photographic Observations of Summer Sea Ice Concentration Along an Arctic Cruise Path. Remote Sens. 2019, 11 (17): 2009. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11172009

38. Wang X., Guo Z., Zhao Y., Yang Z. Sea Ice Concentration Inversion Based on ASI Algorithm Combined with Bootstrap Algorithm. Ecol. Indic. 2024, 158: 111484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111484

39. Yu M., Lu P., Li Z. Sea Ice Conditions and Navigability Through the Northeast Passage in the Past 40 Years Based on Remote-Sensing Data. Int. J. Digit. Earth 2021, 14 (5): 555–574. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2021.1886355

40. Zhou W., Leung L.R., Lu J. Steady Threefold Arctic Amplification of Externally Forced Warming Masked by Natural Variability. Nat. Geosci. 2024, 17: 508–515. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01432-2

Supplementary files

For citation: Shalina V., Frolova A.V. Changes in Sea Ice Concentration in the Vilkitsky Strait, as Observed from Satellite Microwave Radiometry Data Between 1979 and 2024. Ice and Snow. 2026;66(1):121-137. https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526010092

Refbacks

There are currently no refbacks.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

ISSN 2076-6734 (Print)
ISSN 2412-3765 (Online)

Username
Password