Estimates of Changes in the State of The Ice Sheets of the Northern Hemisphere During Future 100 kyr

A. N. Ploskov; A. V. Eliseev; I. I. Mokhov

doi:10.7868/S2412376526010037

Estimates of Changes in the State of The Ice Sheets of the Northern Hemisphere During Future 100 kyr

A. N. Ploskov, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov

https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526010037

Full Text:

Abstract

Ensemble simulations are performed with a modified version of the two-dimensional vertically isothermal ice sheets model IceBern2D of the Northern Hemisphere. The computation domain is limited to the Northern Hemisphere. The ERA5 reanalysis data used for the present-day state. Future atmospheric forcing is adopted from the simulations with the Climber-2.3 climate model, which is forced by the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere and by the changes of the parameters of the Earth orbit. In the subset of the simulations, stochastic terms with experiment-dependent decorrelation length up to 1 kyr are added to the above-mentioned deterministic forcing. In all simulations, changes of orbital parameters during next 100 kyr do not lead to strong glaciations, and the global sea level variations are limited to several meters. This is even enforced by anthropogenically induced climate warming, because, despite anthropogenic emissions ceasing after several centuries, climate is warmer than the preindustrial state even after 100 kyr of simulations. Stochastic forcing may lead to strong deviations of the ice sheet state trajectory from the deterministic one.

Keywords

climate changes, ice sheet models, future climate changes,

About the Authors

A. N. Ploskov

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Moscow

A. V. Eliseev

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences ; Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Moscow

I. I. Mokhov

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences ; Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Moscow

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Supplementary files

For citation: Ploskov A.N., Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I. Estimates of Changes in the State of The Ice Sheets of the Northern Hemisphere During Future 100 kyr. Ice and Snow. 2026;66(1):33-44. https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526010037

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