Reconstruction of Climate and Glaciers on Mount Elbrus in the XV–XXI Centuries by CMIP6 Model Data


https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526010024

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Abstract

The main objective of this work is to create long-term series of air temperature and precipitation for the 15th–21st centuries to model the glaciation of Mount Elbrus. For this purpose, CMIP6 climate models’ data for the period 1466–2100 were used. Statistical comparison of model series with different types of observations and paleoreconstructions were carried out: meteorological observations on weather stations, dendrochronological reconstructions of air temperature and precipitation, reconstruction of snow accumulation on the West Elbrus Plateau by ice core data. The comparison showed that the paleoclimatic model data for XV–XIX centuries can be compared with data from paleoreconstructions on time scales more than decades. The best match with observations and reconstructions is obtained by the set of criteria over different periods of times for the INM-CM4-8 and ACCESS-ESM1-5 models. Systematic errors of the selected models were eliminated using a linear correction based on monthly average anomalies calculated from the observations at Terskol weather station. It is shown that the amplitude of air temperature and precipitation fluctuations, as well as the mass balance calculated from these characteristics, at different time scales according to CMIP6 model data are significantly lower than according to reconstruction data. It was found that the mass balance of the Elbrus glaciers, calculated using simple regression relationships based only on data on air temperature and precipitation in several periods of the 19th–20th centuries does not agree with reconstruction data of glacier oscillations. The final prognostic series by the end of 2100 yr. show an increase in air temperature by 2–6 °C depending on the climate change scenario, the amount of winter precipitation will increase from 8 to 20% depending on the scenario, and the amount of summer precipitation, on the contrary, will decrease to 20% (except for the SSP3-7.0 scenario).

About the Authors

I. A. Korneva
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences ; Branch of Institute of Natural and Technical Systems
Russian Federation
Moscow; Sochi


O. O. Rybak
Branch of Institute of Natural and Technical Systems ; Water Problems Institute of RAS ; H.M. Berbekov Kabardino-Balkarian State University
Russian Federation
Sochi; Moscow; Nalchik


E. A. Dolgova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Moscow


N. E. Elagina
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Moscow


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Supplementary files

For citation: Korneva I.A., Rybak O.O., Dolgova E.A., Elagina N.E. Reconstruction of Climate and Glaciers on Mount Elbrus in the XV–XXI Centuries by CMIP6 Model Data. Ice and Snow. 2026;66(1):8-32. https://doi.org/10.7868/S2412376526010024

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