Prediction of avalanches on the basis of the 27‐day Solar activity variations

Abstract

Many natural processes on the Earth are the cyclic ones and they are self-sustaining within a system of the Sun–Earth relations. To verify our hypothesis on a cyclic occurrence of the avalanche processes and to estimate a possibility to predict avalanches as a cyclic process we had analyzed information about avalanches and meteorological processes (number of avalanches per a day, their total and maximal volumes, and daily sums of precipitation) using the method of 27-day Sun (solar) calendars by A. Chizhevskiy. Analysis of results of such studies obtained in Khibini (Kola peninsula, for 1935–1986) and on a Chamginskiy mountain pass (the Sakhalin Island, Vostochno-Sakhalinskie Mountains, for 1982–1992) had shown that activity of the avalanche processes and the atmospheric precipitation had evident 27-day solar cycle. Cyclicity of appearance and volume of avalanches of both syngenetic and epigenetic types is established as well as of the precipitation in quantitative gradations. Procedures of prediction of number and volume of avalanches and daily precipitation were developed on the basis of their relationship with the Sun cycles. Verification of the method proposed in this article by the data obtained in Khibini (Kukisvum mountain pass, 1987–1988) and on the Sakhalin Island (Chamginskiy mountain pass, 1993–1995; Yuzhno-Sahalinsk; Tomari, 1991–1999) had demonstrated that correctness of such forecast with earliness of 60 days is as follows: for precipitation – 85–90%; the new snow avalanches of new snow – 90–95%; avalanches of recrystallization snow – 75–80%. At that with earliness of 10 days: precipitation – 90–95%; avalanches of new snow – 95%; avalanches of r recrystallization snow – 75–80%.