Modeling the variation trends of glacier systems

Z. Xie; X. Wang; Q. Li; S. Liao; Y. Dai

doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22

Modeling the variation trends of glacier systems

Z. Xie, X. Wang, Q. Li, S. Liao, Y. Dai

https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22

Abstract

The basic principles and methods for a functional glacier systems model are introduced and applied for glaciers of Northwest China. When running the model we assume that a glacier system is under steady state conditions in the initial year. The median size of a glacier system is used as representative for the system. The curve of glacier area distribution against elevation is used to compute the increase in equilibrium line altitude (ELA), and the annual glacier ablation is calculated using a global formula
a = 1.33(9.66 + ts)².⁸⁵ [4, p. 96]. The net mass balance near the ELA under steady state conditions represents the net mass balance of the whole glacier system, and the time required for glacier runoff to return to the initial year level is calculated according to the law of glacier runoff variation, and used to calculate the variation of glacier area. The variation of glacier runoff is modeled according to ablation at the ELA, and the variation of glacier volume is modeled according to the absolute value of the mass balance. The observed changes in surveyed glaciers in China over recent decades were broadly consistent with predictions of the glacier system model. The model therefore offers a reliable method for the prediction of changes in glacier systems in response to changing climate.

Keywords

Climate warming, functional model, glacier system, variation trend,

About the Authors

Z. Xie

College of Resources and Environment, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
Russian Federation

X. Wang

Department of Geography, Hunan University of Science & Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China;
Russian Federation

Q. Li

Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha, Hunan Province 410118, China
Russian Federation

S. Liao

College of Resources and Environment, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
Russian Federation

Y. Dai

College of Resources and Environment, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
Russian Federation

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Supplementary files

For citation: Xie Z., Wang X., Li Q., Liao S., Dai Y. Modeling the variation trends of glacier systems. Ice and Snow. 2013;53(4):13-22. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22

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