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Моделирование трендов изменений ледниковых систем
https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22
Аннотация
В результате современных изменений климата многие ледники на Земле продолжают отступать, что приводит к серьёзным последствиям для окружающей среды. В связи с этим исследования колебаний ледников и прогноз трендов этих изменений, включая моделирование реакции ледников на климатические изменения, динамические и гидрологические модели, представляют собой одну из актуальных задач современной гляциологии. Мировой каталог ледников служит источником глобальных данных о ледниках, а современные космические технологии позволяют проводить широкомасштабные исследования изменений ледников. В последнее время предложены модели, описывающие изменения ледников. Так, Paul et al. [20] основывают прогноз изменений ледников в нескольких областях Швейцарии на данных о площади области аккумуляции на ледниках. Г. Глазырин и Ю. Кодама [9], используя три каталога ледников для четырёх бассейнов Памира, разработали метод моделирования изменений площади ледников. В.А. Кузьмиченок [13] предложил статистический метод моделирования стока и оценки процессов для ледников Кыргызстана.
В настоящей статье рассматриваются основные принципы и характеристики функциональной модели ледниковой системы Северо-Западного Китая, разработанной на базе теории о ледниковых системах [4, 32]. При использовании модели предполагается, что в начальный год ледниковая система находится в стационарном состоянии. За характерную площадь ледника в системе принята его медианная площадь. Кривая распределения площади ледников в зависимости от высоты применяется для расчётов повышения высоты границы питания, а величина годовой абляции на леднике рассчитывается по формуле a = 1,33(9,66 + ts)2,85 [4, с. 96]. За исходный баланс массы всей системы принимаются балансовые характеристики ледника на высоте границы питания при стационарных условиях. Изменение ледникового стока рассчитывается через величину абляции на высоте границы питания, а изменение объёмов – через абсолютный баланс массы. Прогнозы, сделанные на основе моделирования, подтвердились результатами полевых наблюдений на опорных ледниках за последние десятилетия. Таким образом, модель предлагает реальный метод прогноза изменений ледниковой системы в связи с климатическими изменениями.
Об авторах
Z. XieРоссия
X. Wang
Россия
Q. Li
Россия
S. Liao
Россия
Y. Dai
Россия
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Дополнительные файлы
Для цитирования: Xie Z., Wang X., Li Q., Liao S., Dai Y. Моделирование трендов изменений ледниковых систем. Лёд и Снег. 2013;53(4):13-22. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22
For citation: Xie Z., Wang X., Li Q., Liao S., Dai Y. Modeling the variation trends of glacier systems. Ice and Snow. 2013;53(4):13-22. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22
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ISSN 2076-6734 (Print)
ISSN 2412-3765 (Online)