.png)
.png)
Послать статью по эл. почте 
Моделирование трендов изменений ледниковых систем
https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22
Аннотация
В результате современных изменений климата многие ледники на Земле продолжают отступать, что приводит к серьёзным последствиям для окружающей среды. В связи с этим исследования колебаний ледников и прогноз трендов этих изменений, включая моделирование реакции ледников на климатические изменения, динамические и гидрологические модели, представляют собой одну из актуальных задач современной гляциологии. Мировой каталог ледников служит источником глобальных данных о ледниках, а современные космические технологии позволяют проводить широкомасштабные исследования изменений ледников. В последнее время предложены модели, описывающие изменения ледников. Так, Paul et al. [20] основывают прогноз изменений ледников в нескольких областях Швейцарии на данных о площади области аккумуляции на ледниках. Г. Глазырин и Ю. Кодама [9], используя три каталога ледников для четырёх бассейнов Памира, разработали метод моделирования изменений площади ледников. В.А. Кузьмиченок [13] предложил статистический метод моделирования стока и оценки процессов для ледников Кыргызстана.
В настоящей статье рассматриваются основные принципы и характеристики функциональной модели ледниковой системы Северо-Западного Китая, разработанной на базе теории о ледниковых системах [4, 32]. При использовании модели предполагается, что в начальный год ледниковая система находится в стационарном состоянии. За характерную площадь ледника в системе принята его медианная площадь. Кривая распределения площади ледников в зависимости от высоты применяется для расчётов повышения высоты границы питания, а величина годовой абляции на леднике рассчитывается по формуле a = 1,33(9,66 + ts)2,85 [4, с. 96]. За исходный баланс массы всей системы принимаются балансовые характеристики ледника на высоте границы питания при стационарных условиях. Изменение ледникового стока рассчитывается через величину абляции на высоте границы питания, а изменение объёмов – через абсолютный баланс массы. Прогнозы, сделанные на основе моделирования, подтвердились результатами полевых наблюдений на опорных ледниках за последние десятилетия. Таким образом, модель предлагает реальный метод прогноза изменений ледниковой системы в связи с климатическими изменениями.
Об авторах
Z. XieРоссия
X. Wang
Россия
Q. Li
Россия
S. Liao
Россия
Y. Dai
Россия
Список литературы
1. Vinogradov V.N., Glazyrin G.E. Statistic approach to the study of glacier morphology in Kamchatka. Izvestiya VGO. Proc. of the Russian Geographical Society. 1979, 111 (4): 325–329. [In Russian].
2. Glazyrin G.E. Raspredelenie i rezhim gornykh lednikov. Distribution and regime of mountain glaciers. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1985: 156 p. [In Russian].
3. Glazyrin G.E., Kamnyansky G.M., Pertsiger F.I. Rezhim lednika Abramova. Regime of Abramov Glacier. St.-Petersburg: Hydrometeoizdat, 1993: 228 p. [In Russian].
4. Kotlyakov V.M., Grosswald M.G., Dyurgerov M.B., Mazo V.L. Reaction of glaciation to the forthcoming climate changes. Izvestiya Ross. Akad. Nauk, Seriya Geogr. Proc. of the RAS, Geographical Series. 1991, 5: 35–45. [In Russian].
5. Kotlyakov V.M., Lebedeva I.M. Possible changes of glacier ablation and glacier runoff in the highest mountain countries of Asia under global climate warming. Materialy Glyatsiologicheskikh Issledovaniy. Data of Glaciological Studies. 2000, 88: 3–16. [In Russian].
6. Krenke A.N. Massoobmen v lednikovykh sistemakh na territorii SSSR. Mass-exchange in glacier systems on the USSR territory. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1982: 288 p. [In Russian].
7. Kuzmichenok V.A. On the calculation of area distribution in mountain glaciers according to the altitude. Materialy Glyatsiologicheskikh Issledovaniy. Data of Glaciological Studies. 1996, 80: 195–200. [In Russian].
8. Kuzmichenok V.A. Probabilistic assessment of possible evolution of glaciation and runoff in Kyrgyzstan under predictable climate changes. Materialy Glyatsiologicheskikh Issledovaniy. Data of Glaciological Studies. 2009, 107: 10–25. [In Russian].
9. Narozhnyi Yu.K., Nikitin S.A. Modern glaciation in Altai on the boundary of 21st century. Materialy Glyatsiologicheskikh Issledovaniy. Data of Glaciological Studies. 2003, 95: 93–102. [In Russian].
10. Atlas of Qinghai–Xizang Plateau. Institute of geography, Chinese academy of Science. Beijing: Science Press, 1990: 237 p. [In Chinese].
11. Braithwaite R.J. Mass balance of a glacier is estimated from its equilibrium line altitude. Journ. of Glaciology. 1984, 30 (108): 364–368.
12. Braithwaite R.J. Calculation of degree-days for glacier-climate research. Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie. 1984, 20: 1–8.
13. Chen J., Liu C., Jin M. Application of the repeated aerial photogrammetry to monitoring glacier variation in the drainage area of the Urumqi River. Journ. of Glaciology and Geocryology. 1996, 18 (4): 331–336. [In Chinese with English abstract].
14. Glazyrin G.E., Kodama Y. Evaluation of glacierized area of mountainous river basin in transition. Bulletin of Glaciological Research. 2004, 20: 1–6.
15. Jin R., Li X., Che T., Wu L., Mool P. Change of glacier area in the Pumqu River Basin, Tibetan Plateau between the 1970s and 2001. Journ. of Glaciology. 2005, 51 (175): 607–610.
16. Kotlyakov V.M., Smolyarova N.A. Elsevier’s Dictionary of Glaciology. Elsevier, Amsterdam–Oxford–New-York–Tokyo, 1990: 336 p.
17. Krenke A.N., Khodakov V.G. On the correlation between glacier melting and air temperature. 34 selected papers on main ideas of the soviet Glaciology, 1940s-1980s. Еd. V.M. Kotlyakov. Moscow, 1997: 191–207.
18. Li Q., Xie Z. Prediction of the glacier system s Variation under Periodical Warming-Taking the glacier system in Yangtze valley as an example.Journ. of Glaciology and Geocryology. 2008, 30 (6): 598–593. [In Chinese with English abstract].
19. Liu C., Kang E., Liu S., Chen J., Liu Z. Study on the glaciers variation and its runoff responses in the arid region of Northwest China. Science in China (Ser. D). 1999, 42 (Supp. l): 55–62.
20. Liu Chaohai, Xie Zichu, Mark Dyurgerov (Ed.). Glaciation in Tien Shan. Beijing: Science Press, 1998: 277 p. [In Chinese].
21. Liu C., Xie Z., Liu S. Glacier water resources and their change. Glacier-Snow water resources and mountain runoff in the arid area of Northwest China. Eds. Kang Ersi, Chen Guodong, Dong Zengchuan. Beijing: Science Press, 2002: 14–54.
22. Liu S., Lu A., Ding Y. Glacier fluctuations and the inferred climatic changes in the A′Nyemaqen Mountians in the source area of the Yellow River, China. Acta Geographica Sinica. 2002, 24 (6): 701–707. [In Chinese with English abstract].
23. Liu S., Shangguan D., Ding Y., Han H., Xie C., Zhang Y., Li J., Wang J., Li G. Glacier changes during the past century in the Gangrigabu Mountains, southeast Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, China. Annals of Glaciology. 2006, 43: 187–193.
24. Mi D., Xie Z. Glacier Inventory of China. The Ganges drainage basin XI and Indus river drainage basin XII. Xi’an. Cartographic publishing House, 2002: 572 p. [In Chinese].
25. Oerlemans J., Anderson B., Hubbard A., Huybrechts Ph., Johannesson T., Knap W.H., Schmeits M., Stroeven A.P., van de Wal R.S.W., Wallinga J., Zuo Z. Modeling the response of glaciers to climate warming. Climate Dynamics. 1998, 14: 267–274.
26. Oerlemans J. Modelling of glacier mass balance. Ice in the climate system. Ed. W.R. Peltier. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1993: 106–116.
27. Paul F., Maisch M., Rothenbühler C., Hoelzle M., Haeberli W. Calculation and visualization of future extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modeling. Global and Planetary Change. 2007, 55: 343–357.
28. Seversky I.V. On a procedure of Use the equilibrium line altitude in hygrometeological calculation. 34 selected papers on main ideas of the soviet glaciology, 1940s–1980s. Еd. V.M. Kotyakov. Moscow, 1997: 347–354.
29. Shangguan D., Liu S., Ding Y., Ding L., Xiong L. Monitoring the glacier changes in the Muztag Ata and Konggur mountains, east Pamirs, based on Chinese Glacier Inventory and recent satellite imagery. Annals of Glaciology. 2006, 43: 79–85.
30. Shangguan, D., Liu S., Ding Y., Li J., Zhang Y., Ding L., Wang X., Xie C., Li G. Glacier changes in the west Kunlun Shan from 1970 to 2001 derived from Landsat TM/ETM+ and Chinese glacier inventory data. Annals of Glaciology. 2007, 43: 79–85.
31. Shi Y. (ed). Concise Glacier Inventory of China. Shang Hai. Shang Hai popular Science Press, 2002: 205 p.
32. Shi Y., Shen Y., Li D. An Assessment of the Issues of Climatic Shift from Warm-dry to Warm-humid in Northwest China. Beijing: Meteorology Press, 2003: 17–92. [In Chinese].
33. Wang L., Xie Z., Wang X., Liu S., Ding L., Shangguan D. The glacier area changes in the Qangtang Plateau based on geographic information system and its sensitivity to climate change. Journ. of Mountain Science. 2011, 8: 882–893.
34. Wang S., Xie Z., Dai Y., Liu S., Wang X. Structure, change and its tendency of glacier systems in Altay Mountains. Arid Land Geography. 2011, 34 (1): 115–123. [In Chinese with English abstract].
35. Wang X., Xie Z., Feng Q., Yang Y., Yang M., Lin J. Response of glaciers to climate change in the source region of the Yangtze River. Journ. of Glaciology and Geocryology. 2005, 27 (4): 498–502. [In Chinese with English abstract].
36. Wang X., Xie Z., Li Q., Wang S., Cheng L. Sensitivity Analysis of Glacier Systems to Climate Warming in China. Journ. of Geographical Sciences. 2008, 18 (2): 190–200.
37. Wang X., Xie Z., Liu S., Shangguan D., Tao J., Yang Y. Prediction on the variation trend of glacier system in the source region of Tarim River responding to climate change. Journ. of Mountain Science. 2006, 24 (6): 641–646. [In Chinese with English abstract].
38. Wu S., Yin Y., Zheng D., Yang Q. Climate trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2000. Journ. of Geographical Sciences. 2007, 17 (2): 145–151.
39. Xie Z., Ding L., Liu C., Liu S. Mass balance at the steady state equilibrium line altitude and its application. Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie. 1996, 32: 129–135.
40. Xie Z., Feng Q. The influences of glacier fluctuation on glacier runoff in High Asia. Proc. of the Fifth Chinese conf. on Glaciology and Geocryology. V. 1. Association of Glaciology and Geocryology, Chinese Geography Society. Lanzhou. Gansu Culture Press, 1996: 455–461. [In Chinese with English abstract].
41. Xie Z., Feng Q., Liu C. Modeling the variation of Glacier system –Taking the Southern Tibet region as an example. Journ. of Glaciology and Geocryology. 2002, 24 (1) 16–27. [In Chinese with English abstract].
42. Xie Z., Feng Q., Wang X., Kang E., Liu C., Xie C., Li Q. Modeling the response of glacier system to climate warming – taking glaciers in China as an example. Research of Soil and Water Conservation. 2005, 12 (5): 77–82. [In Chinese with English abstract].
43. Xie Z., Li Q., Wang S. Model of glacier system and it s application – taking Jin Shajiang basin as an example. Journ. of Arid Land Geography. 2008, 31 (40): 502–511. [In Chinese with English abstract].
44. Xie Z., Liu C. Introduction of Glaciology. Shang hai: Shang hai Popular. Science Press, 2010: 490 p. [In Chinese].
45. Xie Z., Wang X., Feng Q., Kang E., Liu C., Li Q. Modeling the response of glacier systems to climate warming in China. Annals of Glaciology. 2006, 43: 313–316.
46. Xie Z., Wen J., Han J. Calculation of multiple year mass balance variation on small dome of Collins ice cap, King George Island. Antarctic Research. 1994, 6 (2): 32–39. [In Chinese with English abstract].
47. Ye Q., Kang S., Chen F. Monitoring glacier variations on Geladandong mountain, central Tibetan Plateau, from 1969 to 2002 using remote-sensing and GIS technologies. Journ. of Glaciology. 2006, 52 (179): 537–545.
48. Ye Q., Yao T., Kang S., Chen F., Wang J. Glacier variations in the Mt. Naimona’Nyi Region, Western Himalayas, in the last three decades. Annals of Glaciology. 2006, 43: 385–389.
49. Yin J., Xie Z., Wu L., Mool P.R., Bajracharya S.R. Characteristics of glacier distribution in Nepal Himalaya. Journ. of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University. 2012, 35 (3): 78–83.
50. Zhang Y., Liu S., Ding Y. Spatial variation of degree-day factors on the observed glaciers in western China. Acta Geograhica Sinica. 2006, 61 (1): 89–98. [In Chinese with English abstract].
51. Zhao Z.,Gao X., Tang M. Prediction of climatic change. Qin Dahe. Assessment on Environment of Western China. V. 2. Ding Yihui. Prediction of Environmental Change in Western China. Beijing: Science press, 2002: 16–46. [In Chinese].
Дополнительные файлы
Для цитирования: Xie Z., Wang X., Li Q., Liao S., Dai Y. Моделирование трендов изменений ледниковых систем. Лёд и Снег. 2013;53(4):13-22. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22
For citation: Xie Z., Wang X., Li Q., Liao S., Dai Y. Modeling the variation trends of glacier systems. Ice and Snow. 2013;53(4):13-22. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-4-13-22
Обратные ссылки
- Обратные ссылки не определены.
ISSN 2076-6734 (Print)
ISSN 2412-3765 (Online)