Прогноз температурных изменений на Алтае в ближайшие 50 лет по реконструированным данным ледникового керна с горы Белуха


https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32

Аннотация

С помощью спектрального Фурье-анализа разложен на несколько разнопериодных синусоидальных функций временнóй ряд палеотемператур, реконструированный по изменению значения δ18О в высокогорном ледниковом керне с седловины горы Белуха. В полученной периодограмме выделены основные гармоники, которые позволили без учёта вклада изменений существующей антропогенной нагрузки сделать сценарные прогнозы среднегодовых (с марта по ноябрь) температурных изменений на Алтае до 2050 г. Прогноз показал, что с 2008 г. температурный режим Алтая входит в фазу похолодания, максимум которой будет достигнут к 2020 г. Затем начнётся 15-летний период повышения температуры, а после 2035 г. вновь наступит фаза похолодания. Полученный нами прогноз согласуется с прогностическими оценками природной составляющей климатической изменчивости, полученными другими исследователями.

Об авторах

Т. С. Папина
Institute of Water and Ecological Problems, Siberian Branch of RAS, Barnaul
Россия


О. В. Ловцкая
Institute of Water and Ecological Problems, Siberian Branch of RAS, Barnaul
Россия


Н. С. Малыгина
Institute of Water and Ecological Problems, Siberian Branch of RAS, Barnaul
Россия


С. С. Эйрих
Institute of Water and Ecological Problems, Siberian Branch of RAS, Barnaul
Россия


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Дополнительные файлы

Для цитирования: Папина Т.С., Ловцкая О.В., Малыгина Н.С., Эйрих С.С. Прогноз температурных изменений на Алтае в ближайшие 50 лет по реконструированным данным ледникового керна с горы Белуха. Лёд и Снег. 2013;53(3):26-32. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32

For citation: Papina T.S., Lovtskaya O.V., Malygina N.S., Eyrikh S.S. Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain. Ice and Snow. 2013;53(3):26-32. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32

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